Happy New Year, everyone! Please note before continuing that you are unlikely to see the word “happy” in any other place in this entry. My predictions for where gaming is going in 2009 are not particularly rosy, but these are lean times, and lean times do not care so much about your feelings.
More closures: As investors pulled money and game sales underperformed, companies closed left and right at the end of 2008. I expect that trend to continue as more Christmas sales results come in. Independent developers, the ones completely unprotected from the financial storm, will be in the most trouble, but publishers will probably close down a significant number of internal studios also. Midway, of course, will be first—there’s a chance some semblance of the company will get out of its current turmoil, but that Midway will bear little resemblance to the one of today.
The $60 price ceiling will hold: Late in the year, the news that Call of Duty: World at War was being sold at $50 in some places scared the bejeezus out of some of the big industry analysts, who began to wonder aloud if the $60 price ceiling was viable in a recession of this magnitude. But the answer to that question doesn’t really matter: whether it seems viable or not, there is no way that that maximum price will drop. It took the industry ten years, a lot of hard work and a whole new hardware generation to get to $60. Lowering the price now wouldn’t just hurt bottom lines immediately, it would hurt them long term as publishers would have to do all that hard work again. Price cuts from an initial asking price of $60 may come quickly, but you all know that’s nor new either. After all it wasn’t that difficult to find Call of Duty 4 for $40 prior to Christmas 2007.
DLC will reign supreme: 2009 will be the big year for downloadable games and add-ons. 2008 set pretty solid bedrock for this to occur, thanks to excellent and financially successful DLC-exclusive titles like Super Street Fighter II Turbo HD Remix and World of Goo. In this down economy, these cheap games will look better than ever to gamers, while game makers will also appreciate how the low development and distribution costs affect their quarterly budgets. When the DSi launches in the US with its own online store, digital distribution will start a long and healthy boom.
The PSP will not put up, but shut up: With things dwindling on every front for Sony, 2009 will be the year where the company will have to look itself in the mirror and ask exactly what its goals actually are with the PSP. Chances are it will not have a good enough answer to this question. There are a few things that could be done to save the system and brand, but it’s just as likely that Sony will let the little thing limp into 2010 and die so the company can instead focus resources on its primary console business. Because that’s where it really needs help.
Related Links:
Looking Ahead: 10 Wii Games Amber's Looking Forward To in 2009
On Sega and the Proper Use of the Wii in 2009
Top 5 Reasons Why 2009 Will Bring the End of Lists
