If The Election Were Today... Round Two

Posted by Brian Fairbanks

 

What is it about the Democrats that they don't learn from their history, and so, in 2008, appear doomed to repeat it?

According to Real Clear Politics and Politico, the electoral map has made what is potentially a seismic shift... to the right:

Let's assume for a second that they're wrong to give the exact-tie vote in Nevada to McCain and give it to Obama: that means the race is a mere 5-electoral votes apart, with McCain in the lead. Going into the Vice Presidential rundown and the conventions over the next two weeks, this is very bad news for Obama. He would need to have such a huge and, seeing that it's so late in the season, impossible bounce from his football-stadium acceptance speech to offset the following week's acceptance speech and post-convention bounce for McCain.

Or he could stop acting like John Kerry and Al Gore and go on the attack. He's started to, calling Bush "McCain's President" in a couple of recent speeches-- but that's old news to voters. If he went on the air and said, over and over, "McCain is unfit to lead-- he doesn't know the difference between Sunni and Shiite, he isn't sure what he wants to do about illegal immigration, etc. etc." and just pound McCain on the same things (experience and so forth) that McCain is hitting him on, Obama might just squeak by.

Otherwise... see above chart.

Via Politico.

 

Related:

If The Election Were Today... Round One

Republican To Steal Election For Obama By Running Against Him

Can We Ask? Might John McCain Be Section 8?

Video of the Day: McCain's Running Mate?


Comments

profrobert said:

I find it very hard to believe that Maryland is in play.  Although the most recent polls I've seen showing Obama far in the lead are from February and March, Gore took 57% of the vote in 2000, and Kerry took 56% in 2004.  There would have had to have been a seismic population shift to turn Maryland from a solid blue to a reddish purple.  I'm not buying it.

August 19, 2008 12:07 PM

Brian Fairbanks said:

I think you were seeing "MO" as "MD" because Maryland isn't on that map. Not to worry, Obama is way ahead there on the larger map:

www.realclearpolitics.com/.../obama_vs_mccain

August 19, 2008 12:24 PM

profrobert said:

Ah, right you are.  My bad.

August 19, 2008 1:06 PM

Daniel J Dwyer said:

Why does Politico's chart leave not count New Mexico? Take a look at the no toss ups map on realclearpolitics; it's a bit clearer and more detailed. It has also never showed Obama as behind McCain (currently shows things 275 for Obama and 263 for McCain). The chart on Politico currently has it at 270 to 263, in Obama's favor, with New Mexico's 5 votes missing. When is the screenshot you have above with the race at 259 to 274 come from? Did they have McCain wining Indiana at that point?

August 19, 2008 1:20 PM

Brian Fairbanks said:

It seems that Politico updated their calendar or changed it because, as you point out, it's not the same. Maybe some intern was computing the numbers today or something...

August 19, 2008 1:26 PM

misfit_joy said:

Down to FL and OH again!!!  What we need is a bad ass Hurricane to wipe out all the rich homes in FL and cause the republicans to leave.  The only people who can't afford to evacuate will be the poor who will vote democrat ( if they vote).  So FL will go to Obama.

Look what I'm reduced to imagining - God I'm depressed.  I can't believe McCain might win.

August 19, 2008 7:52 PM

About Brian Fairbanks

Brian Fairbanks, the Senior National Political Correspondent for Nerve, is a filmmaker living in Brooklyn or New Orleans, depending on the season. He is a heavily-armed advocate of gun control.

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