While it's still possible that the McCain-Obama race could end in an electoral college tie, it's much more likely that the race will go solidly for one ticket or the other. However, as Andy Sullivan puts it at Reuters:
If McCain wins Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida and Ohio but loses Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa to Obama, both candidates could end up with 269 electoral votes.
When put that way, it seems much more realistic that the election won't be decided by voters. (He's winning in Florida, Virginia, and Ohio in most polls, and New Hampshire is very close, and he'll likely lose all four of those states the scenario requires him to lose.) But before you get all freaked out about Dick Cheney or Nancy Pelosi becoming President-By-Default or something, here's what it really looks like is gonna happen... if the election were today...
From Politico:
On "Fox News Sunday," President Bush's former top political adviser, Karl Rove, said he now projects Obama would win 273 electoral votes–enough to take the White House—and
has a chance at 102 more. Just two weeks ago, Rove had the two
campaigns virtually tied. [Politico]
From Electoral Vote:
Obama 329 McCain 194
Ties 15 [obviously, this is bad for McCain, but in almost all swing states, the race could presumably swing McCain's way over the next 28 days]
Even worse for McCain is this somewhat curious site 270towin, which says that Obama only needs to pick up 10 more electoral votes to be unbeatable, while McCain-Palin need:
107 [and consider the following states "must win"]
FL,OH,NC,VA,IN,MO,CO
To further confuse you, here's what many consider the definitive polling map these days, via Real Clear Politics:
Obama/Biden 264
192 Solid 
72 Leaning
McCain/Palin 163
158 Solid 
5 Leaning
Toss Up 111
Obviously, we're not going to give McCain all 111 of those votes just for the sake of argument... since nothing short of a gay sex scandal can send them careening the Republican's way that fast...
Looks like it's time for McCain to unleash the hounds... or something brilliant and similar soon... as in, yesterday.
Any ideas for what McCain should do now?
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