Scanner : Dick Morris

If The Election Were Today... Round One

Brian Fairbanks — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 12:55:00 GMT

This will be the first in a series of periodic updates on the electoral college, the only "polls" that matter. (Don't listen to any idiot media person who says "Obama is leading by ###" because it's totally irrelevant and a blatant lie most of the time, since those numbers usually come from a survey of "registered, likely voters" across the nation, which is different from the electoral college. Got it?)

Anyway, let's look at who's really ahead right now...

Dick Morris, ex-Clinton kingmaker and now right-wing operative and FoxNews buffoon, is the country's most consistent pollmaster. Here's what he has to say about the race, as it stands today. (By the way, you don't have to read all this; just scan and jump to the bottom if you'd like.)

STATE	VOTE	00, 04 RESULT	'08 PREDICTION
ALABAMA	EV 9	B,B	LEAN MCCAIN
ALASKA	EV 9	B,B	MCCAIN
ARIZONA	EV 10	B,B	MCCAIN
ARKANSAS	EV 6	B,B	LEAN MCCAIN
CALIFORNIA	EV 55	G,K	OBAMA
COLORADO	EV 9	B,B	TOSS UP
CONNECTICUT	EV 7	G,K	OBAMA
DELAWARE	EV 3	G,K	OBAMA
D.C.	EV 3	G,K	OBAMA
FLORIDA	EV 27	B,B	TOSS UP
GEORGIA	EV 15	B,B	LEAN MCCAIN
HAWAII	EV 4	G,B	LEAN OBAMA
IDAHO	EV 4	B,B	MCCAIN
ILLINOIS	EV 21	G,K	OBAMA
INDIANA	EV 11	B,B	MCCAIN
INDIANA	EV 11	B,B	MCCAIN
IOWA	EV 7	G,B	LEAN OBAMA
KANSAS	EV 6	B,B	MCCAIN
KENTUCKY	EV 8	B,B	MCCAIN
LOUISIANA	EV 9	B,B	MCCAIN
MAINE	EV 4	G,K	OBAMA
MARYLAND	EV 10	G,K	OBAMA
MASSACHUSETTS	EV 12	G,K	OBAMA
MICHIGAN	EV 17	G,K	LEAN OBAMA
MINNESOTA	EV 10	G,K	LEAN OBAMA
MISSISSIPPI	EV 6	B,B	LEAN MCCAIN
MISSOURI	EV 11	B,B	TOSS UP
MONTANA	EV 3	B,B	MCCAIN
NEBRASKA	EV 5	B,B	MCCAIN
NEVADA	EV 5	B,B	LEAN OBAMA
NEW HAMPSHIRE	EV 4	B,K	LEAN OBAMA
NEW JERSEY	EV 15	G,B	OBAMA
NEW MEXICO	EV 5	G,B	LEAN OBAMA
NEW YORK	EV 31	G,B	OBAMA
NORTH CAROLINA	EV 15	B,B	LEAN MCCAIN
NORTH DAKOTA	EV 3	B,B	MCCAIN
OHIO	EV 20	B,B	TOSS UP
OKLAHOMA	EV 7	B,B	MCCAIN
OREGON	EV 7	G,K	OBAMA
PENNSYLVANIA	EV 21	G,K	LEAN OBAMA
RHODE ISLAND	EV 4	G,K	OBAMA
SOUTH CAROLINA	EV 8	B,B	LEAN MCCAIN
SOUTH DAKOTA	EV 3	B,B	MCCAIN
TENNESSEE	EV 11	B,B	MCCAIN
TEXAS	EV 30	B,B	MCCAIN
UTAH	EV 5	B,B	MCCAIN
VERMONT	EV 3	G,K	OBAMA
VIRGINIA	EV 13	B,B	LEAN MCCAIN
WASHINGTON	EV 11	G,K	OBAMA
WEST VIRGINIA	EV 5	B,B	MCCAIN
WISCONSIN	EV 10	G,K	LEAN OBAMA
WYOMING	EV 3	B,B	MCCAIN

McCain Total = 202

LEAN MCAIN    = 72
MCCAIN          = 130

Obama Total = 269

OBAMA           = 186
LEAN OBAMA   = 83

TOSS UP      = 67

To make this easier, let's look at his "Toss Ups" and make some educated guesses to get our final tally.

COLORADO: Colorado is hosting the Democratic National Convention, which could both hurt and boost Obama's chances (for example, we recall a lot of Bush Republicans hating their candidate after their New York neighborhoods were turned upside down four years ago.) Nonetheless, let's give this one to Obama, since the state is moving toward the Democratic column in general. Obama +9.

FLORIDA: This one's easy, especially if McCain picks Governor Charlie Crist, as is our prediction. We give it to him anyway. McCain +27.

MISSOURI: McCain should win this one in a squeaker, although we'd love to see a competitive race in Missouri, which would give the state some much-needed financial attention. If the race were held today, we'd say: McCain +11.

OHIO: As in 2004, it's going to come down to Ohio. Obama and McCain both know this-- but how well do their campaigns? Kerry could've called in the UN Fraud Inspec-- nah, he wouldn't have the guts to do that, and it might've backfired. Anyway, we would put our money on Obama this time-- there is no Republican in power in the state that could send broken or insufficient numbers of voting machines to black (i.e. Democratic) neighborhoods to doom the Dem candidate. It's a popular Governor on the Blue Team this time around, and he'll make sure this fight is fair. That means Obama +20.

By this rationale:

MCCAIN WINS 240 ELECTORAL VOTES

OBAMA WINS 294 ELECTORAL VOTES

And if Ohio goes to McCain:

McCain wins 260 Electoral Votes

Obama wins 274 Electoral Votes

Wait, you're saying, I just contradicted myself. In a way, no-- as I said, it will come down to Ohio. Obama must win Ohio because he will most likely lose in at least one of the states we have given him. It's just too early in the race and he's coming off a huge bump in polling, following Hillary's withdrawal. In other words, bad news for McCain, although he knows that it's easier to pull ahead than to stay on top for four more months.

Via Dick Morris.

Dick Morris Calls Edwards Supporters Bigots

Brian Fairbanks — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 20:30:00 GMT

Colmes: Could Edwards right now have an effect on the outcome of this race if he wanted?

Morris: He might, but at the moment his voters are those that can’t decide which they don’t like more—a black or a women getting elected. And..

Colmes: Wait, wait, you’re saying his voters are bigots?

DIck Morris, the former Clinton advisor who turned to FoxNews for cash when he screwed the peach with a prostitute, was on Hannity & Colmes the other night. And what do you know, Colmes actually went toe-to-toe with somebody! The guy who's supposed to be the voice of reason to Hannity's voice of Christopher Lloyd, but I never hear him say a damn thing as the Republicans burn down the house.

Anyway, according to Crooks and Liars, Morris is seizing on the growing disunity in the Democratic party to attack its left wing and move the party to the center. He'd love to go up against Hillary Clinton: he knows the most about her, she has the highest negatives, and he can get away much easier with saying the garbage he says above.

C&L has the video here.

John McCain, 141, Seizes Power in Coup

Brian Fairbanks — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 18:09:00 GMT

Apologies for the panic-inducing title, I just wanted start out with a bang…

John McCain proved Saturday that Republicans might forgive and forget everything: supporting a doomed war (Iraq), opposing the party's top goal (deporting brown people), and an offensively normal blond blogger daughter. (It's also apparently no big deal that the man will be older than Nostradamus by 2016.) And while only a few hours earlier, Mitt Romney had established himself as the man to beat, having won 51% of the Nevada caucus vote, he was soon overshadowed by McCain's upset victory in South Carolina, a state evangelical Governor Mike Huckabee had been long favored to win.

Former Clinton guru Dick Morris sent out a great quote in his daily e-mail this morning:

“The biggest loser in South Carolina was Rudy Giuliani. He now must face a resurgent McCain in Florida who steals his votes away. Rudy is a bit like the guy who went away to college and came home to find that some other guy had stolen his girl.”

Ouch. But then again, who’d steal Judy Nathan?

What does all this mean for the future of our nation, which The Onion believes is in its final year? And more importantly, who do we have to see about banning Fred Thompson from ever running for office again? The guy is about as exciting as my last colon exam, and believe me, I was very much not aroused.

These and more questions will be answered by Yours Truly, the new National Political Correspondent for Nerve. We'll be concentrating on specific issues that have vaguely nothing to do with Nerve (but I'll throw in a crazy Mike Huckabee abortion comment every day or so, just to stay relevant.)

[Photo of the author and Dennis Kucinich by Mark Esper]

[Photo of Judith Nathan and Rudy Giuliani by Joe Schildhron/PMc]