In the wee hours of January 22nd (my birthday by the way – Target gift cards are always appreciated!), the nominations for the 81st Academy Awards will be announced by whichever two actors lost the coin-toss at the 80th Academy Awards ceremony last February. (Apparently the nominations were originally supposed to be announced on January 20th, but apparently there’s some big parade or whatever going on that day.)

Anyway, next to making year-end lists and posting cleavagey shots of Scarlett Johannson, there’s nothing your friends at the Screengrab enjoy more than Oscar predictions.

This year, we’re keeping score...and you (yes, YOU!) can play along at home by posting your predictions (down yonder in the Comments section) for the five nominees in each of the following major categories (along with your long-range guess for the winners of each award): Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor & Best Supporting Actress.

After the actual nominees are announced, we’ll tally up the points and see which Screengrabber (or Commenter!) had the most accurate predictions, thus earning the top-seed spot going into the full-scale Oscar prediction play-offs.

For the Screengrab’s individual and collective picks, we'll see you after the jump!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Scott Von Doviak Predicts:

NOMINEES
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Penelope Cruz is the thinking man's choice for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Kate Winslet will pull double duty for taking it all off in The Reader. Speaking of taking it all off, how about Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler? Viola Davis stole the show with five minutes in Doubt. And how about trying to lure Debra Winger back to full-time work with a nomination for Rachel Getting Married?

WINNER
Cruz, resurrecting the Woody Allen lock on this category from a decade ago.



Sarah Clyne Sundberg Predicts:

NOMINEES
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Beyoncé Knowles (Cadillac Records)
Samantha Morton (Synecdoche, New York)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)

There are surprisingly few obvious choices for this one. Penelope Cruz will get nominated for Vicky Cristina Barcelona because it's the first good Woody Allen pic in years and nobody else is going to get any recognition for it. Marisa Tomei is here for playing a stripper, which is the type of thing that leads to nomination, unless of course you are Elizabeth Berkley. Amy Adams seems like another likely contender and Samantha Morton and Beyoncé Knowles, well they don't seem likely at all… I just like the thought of it really.



Paul Clark Predicts:

NOMINEES
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Anyone who is familiar with Doubt knows that the character of Mrs. Miller is prime awards bait, and Davis most definitely brought her game to the role. And Cruz’s memorably over-the-top turn as Vicky Cristina Barcelona’s unhinged Maria Elena promises to be the first acting nomination from a Woody Allen film in nearly a decade (while you’re at it, pencil Allen in for his 15th Best Original Screenplay nomination). Winslet looks like she’s on track to rack up nomination #6 and perhaps even #7 this year, and I’m guessing that this’ll be her year to win one. Another name that keeps popping up in the precursor awards is Amy Adams, but do you think that the voters will nominate all four principle actors from a movie they didn’t love enough to nominate for Best Picture? I doubt it. Looking much more likely are one-time Oscar winner Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler, and Taraji P. Henson, whose adorable performance as Benjamin Button’s adoptive mother Queenie is a highlight of a movie that ought to get plenty of Academy attention.

WINNER
Kate Winslet



Andrew Osborne Predicts:

NOMINEES
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married)

Why no love for Debra Winger’s blistering mama in Rachel Getting Married?  Nobody’s talking up her Academy Award chances and as far as I know, only the Spirit awards have given a nod to one of last year's most memorable performances...but voting emotionally rather than strategically is always a sure way to hemorrhage points in your office Oscar pool (see my prediction snub of Sally Hawkins under Best Actress), so I’ll go with a safe bet for my first choice instead: Penelope Cruz, who’s also going to win (okay, to be honest, this pick is strategic and emotional, since she gave another one of my favorite performances of 2008, raising all surrounding boats on her raging, hormonal tide in Vicky Cristina Barcelona). But if it’s not Cruz, then it’s hard to imagine anyone beating Viola Davis, who was flat-out fantastic in Doubt. (Actually, now that I think about it...scratch Cruz and put me down for Davis: in such a tight race, a single vote could easily tip the balance, and for all I know, that swing vote could be Mia Farrow.)  Aside from those two sure things, though, Supporting Actress is always the trickiest of the major categories to predict. Nobody expected Marisa Tomei to win for My Cousin Vinny way back in ‘92, for instance (though nobody was too surprised to see her fall victim to the Best Supporting Actress curse shortly thereafter); still, despite rumors that she’s, um, a bit of a handful to work with, she’s still a Made Guy in the Academy family, and it seems about time for Oscar to welcome her back.  As for Amy Adams...well, she's America’s (and Hollywood’s) latest sweetheart, she looks good in red carpet couture and she did nice work in Doubt, so I expect she’ll snag the fourth spot. And finally...ah, what the hell: Winger.

WINNER
Viola Davis



Leonard Pierce Predicts:

Although 2008 got widely (and, I think, somewhat unfairly) smeared as an off year for movies, it was definitely a good year for the kinds of flicks that Oscar voters go for. With plenty of historical epics, ‘message’ pictures, and the kinds of ripe, fruity performances that always rack up AMPAS gold, the year may not have been a great one for the art house crowds, but it should provide the kind of entertainment at the Oscar ceremonies that Hugh Jackman won’t. Forthwith, my predictions for what’ll show up on the ballots in six major categories (the sure-fire lock: that I’ll make a total ass of myself with these picks).

NOMINATIONS
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Amy Ryan (The Changeling)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)

The Academy will nominate a Woody Allen movie, as they do every few years just to get on his nerves, and movie fans will grind their teeth trying to figure out which Amy is which, distracting them from their usual annual confusion over why two actresses from the same movie got the nod. But in the end, Winslet will take home the statue for The Reader, a movie that’s going to get stiffed everywhere but in the acting categories. BIGGEST SCREWJOB: Debra Winger’s wonderful turn in Rachel Getting Married will be ignored, because the Academy can only handle so many comeback stories at a time.

WINNER
Kate Winslet



SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: NOMINEES
AMY ADAMS, PENELOPE CRUZ, VIOLA DAVIS, MARISA TOMEI, KATE WINSLET

SCREENGRAB CONSENSUS: WINNER
KATE WINSLET

Click Here For Part Two, Three, Four, Five & Six

Contributors: Paul Clark, Andrew Osborne, Leonard Pierce, Sarah Clyne Sundberg, Scott Von Doviak