We’ve already presented our Oscar predictions, and we assure you we put as much thought into them as the next guy…assuming the next guy isn’t Nate Silver. That name may ring a bell if you’re either a baseball fan or a political junkie. His statistical work for Baseball Prospectus, including PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm), has long been invaluable to statheads and fantasy players, but it was his FiveThirtyEight.com project, which proved to be the most accurate predictor of the 2008 election results, that made him a household name (at least in households where MSNBC plays more than three hours a day).

Now Nate Silver has turned his statistical genius toward helping to win your office Oscar pool. “Formally speaking, this required the use of statistical software and a process called logistic regression,” according to New York magazine. “Informally, it involved building a huge database of the past 30 years of Oscar history. Categories included genre, MPAA classification, the release date, opening-weekend box office (adjusted for inflation), and whether the film won any other awards.”

Among Silver’s findings: Heath Ledger runs away with the Supporting Actor category, with an 85.8% chance of winning, Taraji P. Henson is his somewhat surprising pick for Supporting Actress, and Slumdog Millionaire is a slamdunk with a 99% chance of taking home Best Picture. “Slumdog Millionaire won all three awards associated with Oscar success: the Directors Guild Award, the Golden Globe, and the bafta. It’s also a serious film, which the Academy favors. If there’s an upset (which would be a shocker), it will be Milk; guilt over Prop 8 and the Brokeback snub of ’06 could split the vote, with Boyle getting Director and Milk getting Picture.”